An Obama Iranian Gambit?

In the Obama era, nothing is what it seems, and coincidences don’t exist. Even if you’re not a conspiracy theory hound, things happen that make you wonder.

In the span of just a few weeks, we’ve seen reports of Saudi Arabia clearing airspace and landing facilities for Israel should it decide to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. We’ve seen Obama suddenly make nice with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after months of public (and no doubt private) condemnation of Israel. We hear of a UAE ambassador speaking on the record with a reporter to the effect that in his view a cost-benefit analysis favors attacking Iran, even while acknowledging those costs include the potentially serious and unpredictable reactions and counterattacks that might arise and affect his own country. We see Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman speaking publicly from Jerusalem from Jerusalem of the possible necessity for a US attack on Iran.

It doesn’t take a genius to see the outlines of an election-shifting gambit by Obama that would involve the launch of major hostilities against Iran before November. (And yes, we know a sizable contingent of quasi-serious thinkers will be shocked, shocked! at the idea that such a serious step toward war could be made mostly as a political calculation). But the truth is it's a small variant on an old playbook. Americans rally around their President in times of war. Obama deflects the Muslim sympathizer label by attacking a Muslim country (though he knows full well that Sunni Muslims, which are by far the dominant branch of Islam throughout the world, despises and fears the Iranian Shiite regime, and favors an attack). Obama snuffs out the suspicion that he is out to destroy the America of the founding by engaging in warlike activities that can be marketed as pro-American. Obama diverts the public’s attention from the economy, immigration, Black Panther cases, and healthcare, and moves onto themes of national sacrifice in times of crisis and international insecurity. The nightmare scenarios of a cutoff of the Strait of Hormuz are avoided not only by the US military presence in the area but by the full though private support of Saudi Arabia and other pro-Sunni regimes in the region. Some of the more stupid leftists go off in a rage at any aggression toward anything but America and Christianity, but the smarter ones see the attractive big picture:

Obama and the Democrats escape landslide defeats in November, and the radical left agenda proceeds full bore, with Obama’s Muslim sympathy and appeasement even given a boost by Americans’ instinctive desire to make amends after the attack on Iran. Taxes must go up to pay for the attack; all Americans must do their patriotic duty and pay those higher taxes without complaint by those evil and unpatriotic Republicans.

We wouldn’t mind seeing the Iranian nuclear facilities literally blown up, and we’d guess the Iranian people wouldn’t mind seeing the regime upended and overthrown. Ahmadinejad and his enablers are evil and insane, and setting them back a few decades would be a good thing for the world.

So we’re not opposed to an attack on Iran; it’s a horrible option that happens to be better than all the others. But the even better news, in our view, is that this grand Soros/Axelrod/Obama/Clinton scheme will NOT carry the day in November. For one thing, if we at Brushfires of Freedom can put the pieces of this gambit together, many others can just as well. Being played does not sit well among those who know they are being played. But even if those who can see the gambit are just a small percentage of the electorate, the remaining percentage is not as easily fooled or distracted as the leftists believe. Their miscalculation comes from their trust in the mainstream media to carry their scheme to victory.

But the open secret that all but those in the Beltway Bubble know is that Obama has long ago lost the American people. The corruption and back-room dealing; votes on bills that haven’t been read; Orwellian discourse on and now lawsuit against Arizona’s immigration law; dismissal of open-and-shut voter intimidation cases caught on tape; and an oil spill and reaction to it that are nothing short of criminal neglect—these will not be forgotten, no matter how much rallying there is to support US troops carrying out the attack and defending American interests.

The American people would recall Obama today and by large margins if the Constitution permitted it. They’ll say ‘thank you very much for taking out the Iranian nuclear facilities’ but proceed with throwing out Democrats and other liberals in 2010. Obama won’t be far behind.

Paul Gable

July 7, 2010