Political Earthquake in Texas? Updated

Updated March 2, 2010

Maybe not a political earthquake, but another blow to RINO’s

Early returns in Texas indicate Debra Medina couldn’t get past the 16%-18% level in her grassroots tea party-esque effort to win the Republican nomination for Governor against incumbent Governor Rick Perry and incumbent Senator/challenger Kay Bailey Hutchison.

The Glenn Beck interview/Truther stunt that we commented on below certainly didn’t send Medina back into 4% territory, as Beck smirked that it would, but it probably prevented her from getting a serious look by those still making up their minds late in the campaign. And those who entertained even the possibility of voting for Medina but ultimately didn’t, almost certainly broke for Perry and gave him the run-off proof majority victory.

The bigger message for the national Republican Party is that RINO’s—even in conservative disguise—are facing extinction. Kay Bailey Hutchison liked to trumpet that she had been the biggest vote-getter in Texas politics over the course of her three term Senate career. But Obama and his radical left agenda has changed everything. The Political Class—of which Hutchison is seen as a quintessential member—is always trying to compromise and see everyone and everything as reasonable and negotiable. The Republican Political Class has only recently begun to show signs of understanding the ‘fighting mad’ profile that is sweeping grassroots America, and Hutchison has never been able to show that she gets it. She is the queen of moderates, and the people aren’t interested.

Rick Perry, on the other hand, has been visible on the national scene in objecting to Obama’s agenda. His campaign ads on the weekend before the election even mentioned the importance of the 10th Amendment (state’s rights) in resisting the outrageous overreach of the Obama administration and the Democrat Congress. Add to this the fact that Debra Medina ran solidly to the right of Perry, and with essentially no campaign funds—and pulled in a solid chunk of the vote—and the result was that approximately 70% of Republican voters rejected the Washington insider. She had been tagged “John McCain in a Dress” by one wag, and while we’d rate her conservative bona fides much more legitimate than McCain’s, she was nevertheless notseen as an aggressive fighter for the America of the founding.

So the beat goes on. The American people are awake and angry, and those incumbents and moderates who don’t understand or relate to the stirring of love for the America of the founding are going to find themselves going down in flames.

And here’s another note to the Republican Party. “Moderates” like Hutchison are the ones who are scared witless by Senator Jim Bunning’s call for ‘pay-go’ to be enforced as it relates to the latest $10B spending proposal for the extension of unemployment benefits. The politics-as-usual crowd believes the American people are stupid suckers for the sob story angle the Democrat Party plays and has always played on this kind of issue. But the people know that federal spending is completely out of control; it can’t just be added to and added to for everyone who might like some money; they also know when unemployment benefits continue now in some cases for 99 weeks, they really aren’t unemployment benefits but welfare payments. In any case, the gutless Political Class still doesn’t understand the people’s anger over their fiscal irresponsibility and instead believes the Pravda spin that the people love their elected officials to be endlessly generous with other people’s money.

We think the people are smarter and more responsible than the Political Class. We think that fact is reflected in the message that 70% of Texas Republicans just sent to Kay Bailey Hutchison. Now is not the time for moderation in defense of this country or in protection of its Constitutional heritage of limited government and fiscal conservatism. We need fighters and patriots, and we need them now.

Oh...we almost forgot...one more element of delight for the tea partiers: which candidate for Texas Governor won the endorsement of the all-powerful Pravda media outlet "The Dallas Morning News"? That's right, Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Paul Gable

Next Tuesday, March 2, will be the Republican Primary election for Governor of Texas. We’ve written over a month ago that Debra Medina may surprise the political establishment. Since that first writing, Medina was ambushed by a Rick Perry (the incumbent Republican Governor)-fed Glenn Beck interview that led to accusations that Medina was a 9/11 Truther—as in, first-class nut job who believes George W. Bush was involved in the planning or execution of the 9/11 attacks.

The accusation was never true, but in the way the political establishment views politics as sport, Beck and Perry (and probably Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Republican Senator who is also running for the Republican Governor’s nomination) were no doubt smugly confident that this unworthy upstart Medina had been delivered the political death blow. We think they are grossly miscalculating what is going on in Texas and the US. Even Beck, who in so many ways is locked on to an accurate read of the American ‘soul’, just doesn’t get it.

The Political Class would expect Medina to act out some ‘hurt female’ whining, combined maybe with some hate-filled tirade over political dirty tricks. But Medina wasn’t knocked off stride; did not whine or cry; pointed out the smelly level of well-timed coordination between the Beck interview and the Perry campaign; and moved on without losing focus.

The mainstream Texas media has written her off, though a recent poll shows her holding firm at 20%, while Perry and Hutchison are at 40% and 31%, respectively. Medina’s 20% is down from a previous polling high of 24%, so with about a week to go before the election, that should pretty much seal the deal for Perry, right? Don’t be so sure.

The Beck-Perry 9/11 Truther stunt has been seen as a stunt and dismissed. The national news scene coming into this last week of the campaign is dominated by the outrage of Obama and the Democrats trying to ram Obamacare down the throats of the American people, and the political activist portion of the national news scene is dominated by (1) Scott Brown’s decision to vote for more spending because a bill has the word ‘jobs’ in it; and (2) Mitt Romney’s decision to endorse John McCain in his bid for reelection to the US Senate. All of these items just reinforce the disgust the American people are feeling toward the Political Class; the tea partiers—who are big in Texas—are livid about them.

Early voting reports in Texas suggest a surge of 20% to 30% new voters, and if that holds true on election day, that’s a healthy chunk of voters who are probably not being picked up by the current polls. And it’s very hard to imagine those new voters breaking for incumbents. Perry has played the anti-Obama card better than Hutchison, but they are both incumbents. But Medina, who doesn’t mention Obama much but does rail against an out-of-control political establishment in Washington and elsewhere, has an authenticity and sincerity that Perry and Hutchison just can’t achieve.

If Medina does pull off an upset and either wins the primary outright or forces a runoff with Perry, tea partiers and conservatives across the country should take heart. The establishment Political Class and mainstream media just do not believe such a thing is possible; and they firmly believe an orchestrated media hit job like the Beck interview cannot be overcome. They may have been right if the hit job occurred within 72 hours of the election, but the Beck interview was more like three weeks out, and the intervening time is an eternity in the internet era, where video and blogs and campaign websites are available 24/7 to get more complete information into the hands of anyone motivated enough to get it.

In early 2010, the most motivated people in Texas and across America are those who are deeply and profoundly fed up with how the Political Class has delivered America to the brink of financial ruin, supported by a mainstream media that tries to put a happy face on all things liberal. These highly motivated people are likely Medina voters, and the ‘normal person’ way she persevered after the Beck interview probably rallied even some undecideds to her side. There’s probably a small portion of Texas voters who accepted the Truther spin and tuned Medina out, but we think they are dwarfed by those who checked for themselves, were disgusted by the whole set up nature of the interview, and went on to learn and like more of what Median stands for.

An outright 50+% Medina win in the Texas Governor primary would be right up there with Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts. But it would be even more heartening to Americans everywhere, because unlike Scott Brown, Debra Medina is an unapologetic and unwavering conservative tea partier. We wouldn’t be surprised if she pulls off the outright victory; we definitely think she can overtake Hutchison and force a runoff. And once she’s in the runoff, the 9/11 Truther nonsense will have no legs at all, and the test will be which candidate connects best with the mood of the voters. Our bet is on Medina.

Paul Gable

February 23, 2010